Springer, Applied optimization vol.93] Scenario Logic And Probabilistic Management Of Risk in Busin

To the author’s knowledge the risk phenomenon in complex technical economic and organizational systems is not completely recognized in the scientific plane and is not also resolved satisfactory for needs of applications despite the fact that in complex systems non-success occurs rather often with human victims and large economic losses. The management risk problem is current and challenging; it forces us to carry out new investigations and to seek new solutions for quantitative estimation and analysis of risk.
Risk is quantitative measure such fundamental properties of systems and objects as safety, reliability, effectiveness, quality and accuracy.
Risk is also quantitative measure of non-success of such processes and actions as classification, investment, designing, tests, operation, training,
development, management, etc.

Generally risk is characterized by the following quantitative
probability of non-success;
admitted probability of non-success (admitted risk);
maximum admitted losses or minimal admitted effectiveness;
value of losses or the effectiveness parameter;
the number of different objects or conditions of object in system;
the number of dangerous objects or conditions of object.


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