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    الصورة الرمزية alshangiti
    alshangiti
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    مشرف وإستشاري هندسة المناجم

      وسام مشرف متميز


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    Latest news about gold price

    GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS
    The gold price - is it a question of the dollar or oil?

    A look at the correlations in price movements for gold, silver, oil and the US dollar over the past 20 years.
    Author: Rhona O'Connell
    Posted: Friday , 30 Mar 2007


    LONDON - The answer to the question posed in the title, of course, is "both, and a whole lot more besides". The number of headlines, however, that refer to oil as a key driver of gold prices means that from time to time it is worth taking a closer look and assessing just how influential different parameters can be when it comes to price action.
    The oil price, of course, is frequently a gauge of geopolitical tension and in the current environment it is hardly surprising to find that gold and oil are moving to some degree in tandem. Between the start of 1983 and the end of 1998 oil effectively traded in a sideways trend between, broadly, $10 and $27 per barrel, with the exception of a spike to a record $41.15 in October 1990 after Iraq invaded Kuwait.
    The following analysis, therefore, breaks down the performance of the oil price over the past 20 years according to the primary influences at work and looks at the closeness of gold's price movement relationship with oil, and the dollar during each of those periods. Silver has been added in for interest, since it tends to relate closely to gold, albeit that it tends to be the follower and to trade in more volatile fashion.
    The results are as follows:

    Period
    Comment
    Gold:
    oil
    Gold: trade-weighted dollar
    Gold:
    silver
    1983 - end 1985
    Politically calm, prices drifting lower until output cut
    46%
    Figures not available
    93%
    1986 - July 1990
    Trading sideways, use of formula and fixed pricing
    6%
    Figures not available
    60%
    August 1990 - early 1991
    Iraqi invasion of Kuwait in August; Gulf War ends 28 Feb 1991
    5%
    33%
    16%
    March 1991 - 1998
    Broadly sideways
    13%
    43%
    zero
    1999 - Sep 2001
    Bull market on the back of strong fundamentals
    24%
    19%
    25%
    Sept 2001 to present
    Oil falls initially after 9/11 on expectations of economic downturn. Strong thereafter, reaching $68.70 on 30 March 2007 with gold at $663.50 (am fix)
    77%
    65%
    64%
    The full period

    25%
    50% (1990 to present)
    49%

    The 1980s obviously followed from the oil prices shocks of 1973-74 and 1979-80 when oil rocketed, generated considerable inflationary pressures and gold reacted accordingly. What is often forgotten is that the Middle East was also an extremely heavy purchaser of gold during those periods and the close relationship was therefore rendered even closer than night otherwise have been the case.
    The majority of the 1980s saw gold repairing its fundamentals - it took until 1986 for gold jewellery demand to gain the levels enjoyed in 1978. Silver, incidentally, was in a similar condition and its close relationship with gold is not too surprising.
    The fact that oil prices were fixed for part of the latter part of the 1980s explains, to some extent, the decoupling between oil and gold but the interesting feature is the low relationship between oil and gold during the period of political tension between Iraq's invasion of Kuwait and the end of the first Gulf War. Oil was clearly in a bull market, while gold prices fell, largely as a result of an increase in the value of the dollar which benefited at the time as the asset of last resort on the back of political considerations.
    The period following the war shows a limited relationship between gold and oil (and no relationship at all between gold and silver).
    The recent increase in geopolitical tension, however, has seen the relationship re-established, by contrast with the virtual non-existent correlations during the first Gulf war. The figures suggest that that oil, over the past six years, has had more of an influence on gold than the performance of the dollar, although the 65% correlation between gold and the dollar is of itself a reasonably strong relationship.
    Oil is, as suggested above, a proxy for Middle East-related geopolitical tension, but the difference between the conflict this time, as opposed to 1990 / 91, revolves around the performance of the dollar. Whereas there was considerable confidence in the dollar as a result of the actions of the United States in the first Gulf War, the nature of the tensions this time, with the US involved as a principal from the outset and with the existence of cumbersome external deficits has meant that the dollar has been under pressure.
    Both the dollar and oil, therefore, are helping to contribute to the increase in the price of gold, while other underlying fundamentals, notably the increasing affluence in the grass roots purchasing regions, are underpinning prices. The is little sign of any alleviation in current tensions and it is arguable, therefore, that while gold prices are currently running into resistance, there is scope for further upside yet.

  2. [2]
    kemo26
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    تاريخ التسجيل: Nov 2006
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    thanks alot

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    kemo26
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    تاريخ التسجيل: Nov 2006
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    kemo26
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    تاريخ التسجيل: Nov 2006
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    we need more

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