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PROJECT MANAGEMENT Technique

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    الصورة الرمزية m_halawa
    m_halawa
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    PROJECT MANAGEMENT Technique

    1. PERT (Program Evaluation and Review Technique)
    Analysis
    PERT Duration Estimate = (P + 4M + O) / 6
    Where:
    P = Pessimistic Duration Estimate
    M = Most Likely Duration Estimate
    O = Optimistic Duration Estimate
    ♦ Used when a task has a great amount of uncertainty
    ♦ By creating 3 distinct estimates (P, M & O) and using the above
    formula to calculate your working estimate, you have factored in
    the uncertainty
    ♦ Final estimates will be appropriate should your tasks come in
    with a normal distribution of variation
    SD = (P - O) / 6
    Where:
    SD = Standard Deviation
    TV = [ (P – O) / 6] ²
    Where:
    TV = Task Variance
    PV = √ sum (TV)
    Where:
    PV = Project Variance
    ♦ Used to calculate the task and project variance
    ♦ A larger variance indicates greater uncertainty within the
    estimates
    ♦ Can be used as a +/- degree of certainty






    2. Communications Channels
    CC = N (N-1) / 2
    Where:
    CC = Number of Communication Channels that Exist
    N = Number of Entities / People who Need to Communicate
    ♦ Used to calculate the number of unique communications
    channels that exist
    ♦ Helps in understanding the potential complexity of
    communication
    3. Investment Determinations
    Present Value (PV)
    PV = FV / (1 + r) ⁿ
    Where:
    FV = future (forecasted) cash flows of an initiative (revenue or
    cost)
    r = interest rate
    n = number of time periods
    ♦ Used to calculate the current value of future cash flows
    ♦ Assists in project initiative spending decisions by comparing
    anticipated benefits from uncertain projects with typical
    investment strategies









    Net Present Value (NPV)
    NPV = sum (PV revenue cash flows) – sum (PV cost cash flows)
    ♦ Used to calculate the current value of the total anticipated
    benefits of a potential initiative
    ♦ Used to compare possible investment initiatives
    Internal Rate of Return (IRR)
    ♦ Used to compare the anticipated rate of return of multiple
    initiatives
    Payback Period
    ♦ Number of time periods it takes to recover your investment in the
    project (i.e. total revenue=total cost) and start generating
    incremental revenue
    ♦ Used to compare possible investment initiatives
    Benefit Cost Ratio (BCR)
    BCR = benefits (revenue) / cost
    ♦ If BCR > 1, the initiative benefits are anticipated to outweigh the
    costs
    ♦ Used to compare the ratio of benefits to costs of multiple
    initiatives
    Opportunity Cost
    ♦ The NPV lost by choosing to not complete an initiative









    Sunk Cost
    ♦ Costs that have already been spent and should not factor into
    future investment decisions (including project continuance)
    Law of Diminishing Returns
    ♦ The principal that states the more that you put into something,
    the less you get out of it. BCR is the mathematical basis for the
    law
    ♦ Beyond strict math, the principal is used to counter flawed logic
    such as doubling resources will half duration
    Working Capital (WC)
    WC = current assets – current liabilities
    ♦ Represents the amount of money available to an organization to
    invest in initiatives
    4. Earned Value Analysis Formulas
    Cost
    EV = % complete x BAC (calculated at task or work product level, result is summed
    for project EV)
    *CV = EV – AC
    *CPI = EV / AC
    *EAC = AC + (BAC - EV) / CPI
    *EAC = BAC / CPI (simpler equivalent of above formula)
    *ETC = EAC – AC








    *VAC = BAC – EAC
    *V = BAC – AC (calculated at completion)
    * can be calculated at task or work product level, generally used at a project level
    Where:
    EV = Earned Value (formerly BCWP, Budgeted Cost of Work Performed)
    BAC = Budgeted at Completion
    CV = Cost Variance
    AC = Actual Cost (formerly ACWP, Actual Cost of Work Performed)
    CPI = Cost Performance Index (<1 Over Spending, >1 Under Spending)
    EAC = Estimate at Completion
    ETC = Estimate to Complete
    VAC = Variance at Completion
    ♦ Used to track cost variances, calculate cost estimating accuracy and
    forecast future costs (and total project cost) based on early results
    ♦ Requires detailed budgeting and task completion percent tracking at a
    task or work product level
    ♦ Practically, requires project management software (PMS)
    Schedule
    *SV = EV – PV
    *SPI = EV / PV
    * can be calculated at task or work product level, generally used at a project level
    Where:
    SV = Schedule Variance (Expressed in Dollars)
    EV = Earned Value (formerly BCWP, Budgeted Cost of Work Performed)
    PV = Planned Value (formerly BCWS, Budgeted Cost of Work Scheduled)
    SPI = Schedule Performance Index (<1 Over Spending, >1 Under Spending)
    ♦ Used to schedule variances, calculate schedule duration estimating
    accuracy and forecast future durations (and total project duration)
    based on early results


    ♦ Requires detailed budgeting, project network diagram creation and task
    completion percent tracking at a task or work product level
    ♦ Practically, requires project management software (PMS)
    5. Normal Distribution (Sigma or Standard Deviation)
    +/- 1 Sigma = 68.26%
    +/- 2 Sigma = 95.46%
    +/- 3 Sigma = 99.73%
    +/- 4 Sigma = 99.99%
    ♦ Used as a quality standard, 3 or 6 Sigma represents a target (upper and
    lower control limits) for defect-free performance
    6. Project Schedule Buffer
    Sum of the Squares
    Buffer = √ sum (M ²)
    Where:
    M = Most Likely Duration Estimate (often of just critical path
    activities)
    ♦ Used to determine an appropriate duration for the schedule buffer
    ♦ Many other approaches exist including using an arbitrary % of the critical path duration
    Best-practice is to divide the buffer into 3 buffers. The first 1/3rd, the green buffer, can be used without concern. When the project begins using the second 1/3rd, the yellow buffer, the project requires tight control. When the team begins to use the final 1/3rd, the red buffer, the project is in real danger of running overtime.






    7. Accuracy of Estimates
    Order of Magnitude Estimate (Initiation) = -25% to +75
    Budget Estimate (Planning) = -10% to +25%
    Definitive Estimate (Late Planning / Partial Execution) = -5% to +10%.
    8. Risk – Expected Value (EV)
    EV = Probability x Impact
    ♦ Used to determine the expected value of a risk event
    ♦ The sum of the EV, can be used to determine the project reserve (risk contingency budget)

  2. [2]
    hasan2004
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    fayin12
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    Amin Sorour
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    الله ينور يا بشمهندس بجد معلومات قيمه جدا

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    الزعيم2000
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    ما شاء الله على المعلومات القيمة
    أتمنى التواصل والمزيد لأنه واضح إن حضرتك متبحر

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    esas
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    السلام عليكم يا اخي بس ممكن تبدأ الموضوع من الأول لأني مش فاهم حاجة أو لو فيه كتاب بيتكلم عن الحاجات دي بالتفصيل لأني لسه جديد في موضوع الأدارة

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    Mr. Data
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    hosini2000
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    السؤال الذي يحيرني هو ..

    المهندس الذي يعمل ( cost controller ) ..ماذا يفعل ؟ و كيف يفعله ؟

    برجاء الإجابة على سؤالي و لو أمكن تنظيم دورة عن هذا الموضوع لأنه مهم و لأن الكثير من الشركات في مصر و خارجها تطلب مهندسين لهذه الوظيفة

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  9. [9]
    eng_mostafaa
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    جزاك الله خيرا وياريت شرح تقدملنا شرح مفصل

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  10. [10]
    m_halawa
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    والله كان بودي

    الشرح المفصل دي قصة طويلة لكل جزء محتاج فرغ آسف جدا لذلك

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